Imagine a corporation using the following methods. Creative math sends corporate executives to jail.
Here it is used to justify extreme laws and loss of freedom affecting all of us based on "simulated", "missing" & "unknown" numbers.
A Little Known Fact: NHTSA
assigns Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) values to 60% of the drivers who the police felt no
need to test for alcohol.
Doesn't it seem strange that in a fatal accident a driver would not be tested if the police had any suspicion that he may be drunk?
If 60% of the so-called drunk
drivers were never even tested, how accurate can their statistics be? Garbage In, Garbage
The Government 'Fesses Up:Here is the government's exact wording (isn't bureaucratic language fun?):
Translation: The presence of alcohol may or
may not have caused the crash. They don't know and apparently don't intend to try and find
More quotes from the NHTSA:
"The new method estimates BAC levels over the entire range of plausible values from 0.00 to 0.94 g/dl."
Since you are probably DEAD at .45 g/dl (BAC level), doesn't the inclusion of .46-.94 "plausible values" skew the statistical results? Duh!
More Confessions on how they make up the numbers:
[BEGIN VERBATIM TEXT]
Appendix A: FAQ on the Multiply-Imputed Datasets of Missing BAC in FARS [Fatality Analysis Reporting System
1. What is imputation?
A. Imputation is the practice of filling in missing data with plausible values. It solves
the missing-data problem at the beginning of the analysis.
2. Why impute Missing BAC in FARS?
A. On an average, approximately 60 percent of the BAC values are missing/unknown in
FARS each year. Invalid inferences can be drawn on the level of alcohol
involvement for cases where the BAC is missing as the characteristics of the persons
with unknown BACs can be significantly different from those with known BACs. In
order to perform complete-data analysis of FARS data with respect to alcohol
involvement, the missing BACs need to be simulated (imputation!)
3. What is Multiple Imputation (MI)?
A. MI is a technique in which each missing value is replaced by m>1 simulated versions
and these simulated complete datasets are analyzed by standard methods. These
simulated values are actual values of BAC in the plausible range (.00<=BAC<=.94).
4. Why Multiple Imputation of BAC in FARS?
A. Multiple Imputation is the state-of-the-art technique to impute missing values. Each
missing BAC value is replaced by ten simulated values of BAC using rigorous
statistical techniques that consider the interaction of all the characteristics of the case.
MI allows for the computation of Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals.
5. Can MI estimates be used in analysis (regression etc.)?
6. How do I combine the results across the multiply imputed datasets?
7. Why not just impute once?
8. Will the alcohol involvement estimates change from those of the previous method?
A. Yes, there will be minor differences between the estimates of alcohol involvement
between the earlier method (Discriminant Analysis) and Multiple Imputation. The
MI estimates are overall between 0 to 2 percent higher than the estimates from the old
9. Why are there differences between the results from the two methods?
10. Are there
sample programs that analyze the multiply imputed datasets?
[END OF VERBATIM TEXT]
A study by the NHTSA, titled, Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes--Comparisons among Countries, concluded (in their own words):
"The results of the inquiry
indicate that the definitions used in the United States to track alcohol
involvement in fatal crashes are not shared by other developed countries."